Hedi Boys👖, LI brand marketing psyops 😵‍💫 and advertising ROI 📈 – Accidental Insights #5 is here.

“Entertaining and insightful, best combo - it's like working, but with a smile on your face”. – Reader and Customer Insights Manager.

May 08, 2025

Welcome to issue #5 of Accidental Insights. This is the best newsletter yet, imho. It covers everything from the return and death of skinny jeans for men to brand marketing psyops on LinkedIn and some new analyses on the financial returns of investing in advertising.

Some people have asked me for the lifestyle version of Accidental Insights. The big question (ref: How To Spend It, DI Weekend) is: Would anyone read or care? Maybe it’s the summer vacation special.

As always, gatekeeping insights are the natural enemy of Accidental Insights, so remember to share with your friends and enemies.

Some readers haven’t received the newsletter, but why? Gmail automatically sorts this e-mail under the tab “promotions” (which is now also hidden in the e-mail app on iPhone) or the junk folder.

INSIGHT DOWNLOAD

The most interesting things I’ve read, seen, thought about, or debated the last two weeks. High and low.

→ Is podcast the new TV? YouTube is now the top destination for Podcast listeners in the US, and all of the most listened to podcasts (except one) also have a video version. This is probably why Spotify launched a video podcasts feature last year. The New York Times hired a full-time director of photography, primarily for podcasts, and political podcaster Ezra Klein has become a YouTube star, along with a lot of other media owners and journalists. Podcast viewers skip ads to a lesser extent than listeners; media planners will love this shift.

→ Book-flexing. BookTok has made everyone talk about books, yet Swedish book sales are declining. In reality, reading is becoming a status symbol. If you want to flex your reading without having to read, let me introduce you to book merch. LARB has had a popular merch line for a while, and recently Penguin Books and Online Ceramics launched a hyped up colab in defence of freedom of speech. If you want to do it Stockholm style, Cycle Press is peddling a “Yeah I Read No Biggie” hoodie.

→ Brand vs. Marketing Fake News. LinkedIn has been flooded by different hot takes outlining the difference between “brand” and “marketing”. Most are entirely wrong, and it makes me wonder where they come from. Is it a psyop that wants to conquer and divide the marketing community, or are they well-intended people who just have gotten everything wrong? This newsletter’s recommendation is to avoid “marketing vs. branding” posts on LinkedIn. Instead, follow the advice of seasoned industry professionals and academics. Principles don’t change, practices do.

→ Thai Renaissance. Thai Kiosks are a staple in Stockholm, and now Ping is following up their successful guest spots at Brännerian and Lådan with a takeover of Woodstockholms kiosk on Mosebacke Torg. Last year, all food Instagrammers hyped up Chao Na, and now Cha Tong on Kungsholmen and sometimes Blue Chili on Östermalm. We are in the midst of a huge asian food trend, so it makes sense that Sweden’s most utilitarian asian grub is getting an upgrade (s/o to Pats Place and Thongtwiset for being the pioneers). This makes me wonder if The Pad Thai Guy will be the New Carbonara Guy.

→ Obsolete engineers. AI has made investors shift from hiring tech talent to business talent. Since tech companies don’t hire young people to the same extent anymore, new grads must learn their skills elsewhere. From a Stockholm pov, no-code startup Lovable is getting so much hype now. Since IT architects/developers/test leaders are the most common job group among men (10th among women) in Stockholm, we might be in for a seismic shift in the labour market.

→ Let’s get physical. I wrote about brands creating restaurants a couple of newsletters ago, and stayed with the idea for a while. When media formats get shorter and, by that, weaker at conveying emotional brand connections, physical spaces become an essential brand builder. Proof of concept is that luxury fashion brands (who lead the way in brand building right now) have understood the power of third spaces such as flower markets, book stores, restaurant pop-ups, cafés, and vending machines. When will other categories catch up? Most retail experiences are still horrible.

→ Skinny jeans confusion. I briefly chatted with someone almost half my age about whether men’s skinny jeans are returning. My pov was that they aren’t yet (most 30+ guys still wear way too skinny jeans). Also, mainstream advertisers have just started joking with them (KPA Pension). I was probably wrong because Hedi Boys is becoming a thing. At least according to Highsnob and Culted. Are we witnessing a swap where 30+ guys leave their slim-fits for a looser silhouette and the cool kids opt out on their wide trousers for a complete Dior Homme resurgence?

→ Creative ROI. Profit Ability 2 provides a breakdown of advertising profits – 24% is immediate payback (week 1), 18% is carryover payback (week 2-13), and a stunning 58% is sustained payback (14 weeks - end of year 2). Investments in year one have an ROI of £1.87 per invested pound, and after two years it’s £4.11. The most important conclusion is “If you’ve got rubbish creative, it can mean whatever channel you're using won't work particularly well”. Cannes Lions claims that the problem for advertisers is that they are too risk-averse, but according to Profit Ability 2, the least risky thing a CMO could do would be to develop good creative and put a hefty media investment behind it, at least if you look at it from a financial standpoint.

→ The power of influencer brands. Last six months, Mustiga Mauri has been selling crisps for the value of 45 MSEK (1,7% of the Swedish crips markets yearly revenue). The narrative is that he didn’t spend a single cent on marketing. Well, he invested in traditional marketing efforts (4P’s y’all) such as design, PR, distribution, and product innovation (dill and wasabi crisps???). He also started with 284k Instagram followers, 710k YT followers, shows on TV4, and a loved and well-recognized face. Today’s lesson: You don’t need to invest in broad reach brand marketing if you already own a broad reach channel and have a brand with strong emotional connections.

→ Category size matters. New research from some researchers at the Ehrenberg Bass Institute has launched a new article examining how category size and maturity influence consumer behavior and marketing strategy. This is usually discussed in strategy meetings, but we have lacked a good framework for decision making, which Ehrenberg Bass has now provided us with.

INSIGHTS EVOLVED

This section keeps building on already published insights with new observations and micro trends.

→ Independent as f*** and loving it: [1] AKQA founder Ajaz Ahmed is starting new indie agency Studio.One. [2] Ten indie agencies to watch.

→ Boy problems: [1] Sir Magazine is a new magazine aimed at men, combating toxic masculinity. [2] Bloomberg has a special week on men. I think I will return to this topic soon.

→ Everything smells: Fragrance brands are redefining cleaning products. (Byredo also heavily promotes its hair perfume in their newsletter.)

→ Let’s put the end in trend: [1] Viral microtrends are losing their cool. [2] Has TikTok ruined the way we consume fashion trends?

OUTBOUND INSIGHTS

I read, listen to, and watch lots of stuff. Some ladder up to bigger insights, and some are just great reading in their pure form. I’ll share them here.

📊 New report on creativity on TikTok from System1. The brief to all creatives is simple: do short-form content that is really entertaining and has branding from the start.

📰 Gen Z loves Carrie Bradshaw. (Important note: Carrie and Feed Me are the two primary sources of inspiration for this newsletter’s TOV).

📊 It seems like the price for digital ads has doubled in the last year 😱😱😱.

📰 Addison Rae is just Addison now.

💡 Cultured’s yearly CULT 100 is here. Time to upgrade your influencer and celeb strategies.

📰 Gen Z loves nonchalant pop music.

📰 New York’s infamous clout corridor is no more. What’s next?

📰 How to talk brand with your CFO (or if you are one of two CFO’s subscribing: how to talk with your CMO).

📰 The CEO community is turning against Trump due to tariffs.

📰 Gwyneth Paltrow has returned to carbs and cheese.

📰 Inside London’s hipster church scene.